Longtime San Franciscan here with some perspective on the Jenkins race. There's more going on than just remnant anti-Boudin feeling or techie propaganda. The median voter perception here, AFAICT, is that
1. SF feels a lot less safe than it did in 2019 when Boudin originally got elected. That's mostly not about violent assaults or homicides; it's about invasive property crime like garage breakins and frightening behavior by homeless people. Homelessness is definitely worse, and property crime is tough to measure accurately due to reporting issues, as you know.
2. When the city gets less safe, people think the DA ought to be able to Do Something About It. This isn't an entirely fair expectation-- people grossly overestimate how much the DA can actually do by themselves, pretty much no matter who the DA is, and Boudin certainly got plenty of undeserved blame because of this. But it isn't entirely unfair either; part of the job is to work effectively with other relevant players to improve public safety.
3. Boudin couldn't credibly commit to having either the motivation or the ability to Do Something About It, and Hamasaki couldn't either. This is partly due to their job history as adversaries/checks on law enforcement, and partly due to individual candidate quality issues (Boudin's radical-chic background made him less credible as a protector of property, and Hamasaki was a notorious bombthrower/shitposter who alienated a lot of people).
There's definitely an opening for a reformer to come in and make a compelling anti-Jenkins case next time around, but either it'll have to be somebody who can be more convincing that they can reform and protect at the same time, or else it'll have to be timed right for when homelessness and burglary have become less severe problems for exogenous reasons.
Thanks for the recap! Some big wins missing from your board: Moriarty winning the DA race in Hennepin (Minneapolis) is a big deal! She's a public defender and this is a major city. Creuzot and Gonzalez holding their seats in Dallas and Bexar (San Antonio) is crucial to going reform efforts. And in Alameda (Oakland), Pam Price is pulling ahead as the continues. Also, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that any reform DA has yet lost their reelection campaign (not counting Chesa, since the dynamics of a recall, including no specified opponent, are perverse). Every time folks are reelected, that shows others that this work has forward momentum, and encourages more to step up and run for office.
Reader-participation chats and Q-As would interest me. I get so behind on podcasts, I’m afraid my best intentions would not be enough to help me listen much, even though I value your knowledge greatly and love this Substack.
The more moderate DA candidate in Fargo won, and the fedsoc wannabe judge didn’t win in district judgeship. Small victories. Most judges run unopposed.
Radley, you cited research suggesting LASD only responds to 3,000 man-hours of service calls. In reality, it’s likely 10-100x that amount. Would you see if a correction in order?
Not interested in podcasts. They take more of my time than I'm willing to spend--greatly prefer the written word. But I'd love reader chats.
Would you be interested in a podcast in which I discuss these issues with other folks in the criminal justice field? YES
How about reader-participation chats or Q&As with authors and experts? Q & A
Would you be interested in regular reader chats with me, as some Substack authors do? YES
I would 100% be into a podcast!
Longtime San Franciscan here with some perspective on the Jenkins race. There's more going on than just remnant anti-Boudin feeling or techie propaganda. The median voter perception here, AFAICT, is that
1. SF feels a lot less safe than it did in 2019 when Boudin originally got elected. That's mostly not about violent assaults or homicides; it's about invasive property crime like garage breakins and frightening behavior by homeless people. Homelessness is definitely worse, and property crime is tough to measure accurately due to reporting issues, as you know.
2. When the city gets less safe, people think the DA ought to be able to Do Something About It. This isn't an entirely fair expectation-- people grossly overestimate how much the DA can actually do by themselves, pretty much no matter who the DA is, and Boudin certainly got plenty of undeserved blame because of this. But it isn't entirely unfair either; part of the job is to work effectively with other relevant players to improve public safety.
3. Boudin couldn't credibly commit to having either the motivation or the ability to Do Something About It, and Hamasaki couldn't either. This is partly due to their job history as adversaries/checks on law enforcement, and partly due to individual candidate quality issues (Boudin's radical-chic background made him less credible as a protector of property, and Hamasaki was a notorious bombthrower/shitposter who alienated a lot of people).
There's definitely an opening for a reformer to come in and make a compelling anti-Jenkins case next time around, but either it'll have to be somebody who can be more convincing that they can reform and protect at the same time, or else it'll have to be timed right for when homelessness and burglary have become less severe problems for exogenous reasons.
Yes please podcast!
Thanks for the recap! Some big wins missing from your board: Moriarty winning the DA race in Hennepin (Minneapolis) is a big deal! She's a public defender and this is a major city. Creuzot and Gonzalez holding their seats in Dallas and Bexar (San Antonio) is crucial to going reform efforts. And in Alameda (Oakland), Pam Price is pulling ahead as the continues. Also, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that any reform DA has yet lost their reelection campaign (not counting Chesa, since the dynamics of a recall, including no specified opponent, are perverse). Every time folks are reelected, that shows others that this work has forward momentum, and encourages more to step up and run for office.
Reader-participation chats and Q-As would interest me. I get so behind on podcasts, I’m afraid my best intentions would not be enough to help me listen much, even though I value your knowledge greatly and love this Substack.
The more moderate DA candidate in Fargo won, and the fedsoc wannabe judge didn’t win in district judgeship. Small victories. Most judges run unopposed.
Radley, you cited research suggesting LASD only responds to 3,000 man-hours of service calls. In reality, it’s likely 10-100x that amount. Would you see if a correction in order?